Plaid likely to win all seats where they are the single Remain candidate, says political scientist

New analysis shows huge impact of principled pro-Remain pact.

A senior political scientist, Heinz Brandenburg, has said that Plaid Cymru would win every seat where an agreement has been reached for other pro-Remain parties to stand aside.

The party’s Campaign Director, Rhun ap Iorwerth, said that the agreement was an opportunity to “stop the Brexit chaos and elect the most number of Plaid Cymru MPs ever”.

Using existing data and cutting edge Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) polling techniques, Dr Brandenburg – a senior lecturer at the University of Strathclyde – said that Plaid Cymru would extend their lead in the constituencies they hold and could lead to the Party of Wales winning in Ynys Môn, Pontypridd, Llanelli, and Caerphilly.

Dr Brandenburg’s analysis is significantly more accurate because of its use of MRP. MRP is a way of producing estimates of opinions and attitudes for small defined geographic areas. It works by combining information from large national samples (for example tens of thousands of respondents) with ONS and census data.

Plaid Cymru’s Election Campaign Director, Rhun ap Iorwerth AM said:

“This principled and mature agreement between pro-Remain parties gives us the opportunity to stop the Brexit chaos and elect the more Plaid Cymru MPs than ever before.

“The serious times we live in demand serious answers. Our agreement to put our countries before our parties is a radical change in how politics has worked for decades.

“With more MPs, more AMs, and more councillors, and having topped the poll among pro-Remain parties in May’s European election, Plaid Cymru is Wales’ lead party of Remain in this election.

“By uniting behind the Plaid Cymru candidate in these constituencies, people have the opportunity to send a clear message to Westminster that Wales demands a voice and wants to end the Brexit chaos.”